A no "fluff" & fact based analysis on the COVID-19 affect on Park City Real Estate. Consistently updated with new data to keep track of what we are seeing week by week.
Locals as well as vacationers to the Park City area are all wondering how the current pandemic is having an affect on the real estate market as a whole. Since the Park City market generally differs from metro markets in how it reacts to national and worldly events we thought it would be best to highlight all of the current data in one place to easily reference as new information comes out. Since we are a vacation destination area, the demographics of property owners both primary & secondary residents alike respond differently than markets close to us like in Salt Lake City. Let's dive deeper into the current information we have on the real estate market by looking at year over year data. The data below is based off of the entire Park City MLS which includes the surrounding areas and not just real estate within the "Park City Limits".
How would we summarize what is taking place in Park City at the moment? The market hit one big PAUSE button...
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- Year Over Year Overall Activity
- Event Timeline Week By Week Data
- New & Pending Listing Activity
- Buyer Cancellation Figures
- Showing Activity Levels
The above chart compiles four different metrics we are looking at in how the market is reacting to the pandemic in terms of MLS activity. In general, the market began to react to the news throughout March but we didn't really see the large change in data until the April numbers came around. What we did see, as noted in the Withdrawn/Cancelled listings count above, is the sharp increase in sellers removing properties from the MLS to see how the pandemic would play out. March saw a 281% increase in cancelled listings form the year prior and this trend continued into April with a 64% increase in withdrawn listings.
Closed sales are where we see how this reaction in the market took a little while to play out. We saw the market continue to close transactions that were put together prior to the COVID news getting worse throughout the world with the same amount of closed sales as we did the year prior in March. In April, things started to change with buyers holding off on pulling the trigger with purchases as we saw a 43% drop in sales during this time period compared to the year prior. We saw the same sort of data in regards to pending contracts throughout the market with a 39% drop in March and a large 49% drop in April compared to the same time in 2019.
Remember how we said the market hit the "Pause" button? New listings on the MLS are a perfect example of what has been happening. In March we saw no reduction in new listings to hit the MLS. This likely because those sellers with property hitting the market during this time were already making plans and getting ready to list during the months prior which is why these levels remained even from the previous year. It isn't until April where we saw everyone pump the brakes and saw a 44% reduction in new inventory hitting the market in a time where we were already somewhat low on inventory.
The above chart was provided by the Park City MLS and analyzes the market reaction on a weekly basis with the timeline of the virus on the far right. We feel the monthly data above this captures the true reaction in the market a bit better than looking on a weekly basis but being able to look at the numbers in direct correlation to the timeline is interesting to say the least. This does show initial signs of change during February when much of this started in the US and a bigger reaction starting in March as Summit County enters the "Stay At Home" order. As we enter May and take a look at the first few weeks in the market we see new inventory hitting the MLS is still down by a large percentage and closed sales are lagging.
The most interesting piece of information in the graphic above to note at this time is the pending contracts for the first two weeks of May. Pending contracts are at almost the same exact levels the last 3 weeks as they were in 2019! This is exactly what we are seeing on a day to day basis in the market as we discuss things with agents and clients. As soon as we saw light at the end of the tunnel on May 1 the market seemed to jump back into action and buyers started to resume purchasing almost immediately.
Continuing the analysis above this, these charts show the large drop in pending contracts throughout the first part of the pandemic but also highlight how things have surged back to previous levels for the last 3 weeks. The story is similar when looking at new listings having a reduction through much of March & April and starting to surge back up over the last few weeks in general. Closed listings were notably down through the last 6+ weeks but have likely hit the low and will begin to come back as we see the pending contracts over the last few weeks surge back which is encouraging to see.
The fall through count noted above shows the sharp increase in cancelled contracts that were previously marked as pending on the MLS. This clearly shows as things were in the worst stage through March & April we saw a large increase in buyers bailing on deals they had in place. With resorts closed, the news cycles getting worse, and the growing uncertainty, it isn't surprising to see many of these buyers take action and cancel what plans they may have had to enter the market or make a move. As of the first few weeks in May we have seen this completely leveled off and back to normal levels we usually see any given month across the marketplace.
The last metric we will take a look at is the showing activity levels from 2020 compared to 2019. This chart shows exactly what we were describing earlier in how the market hit the "pause" button immediately upon the Stay At Home orders by the state and county. One thing to note is this is only including showings using a Park City lockbox which not all properties in the area use as a showing tool but it is helpful to look at broadly to analyze activity. Showing levels were incredibly low all through March and April and this shows the slow uptick in activity as we hit the first few weeks in May.
We will continue to add information and update the data as it comes out from the Park City MLS on a weekly and monthly basis so you can stay up to date on what is happening in the market. If you have any questions on the above information, feel free to contact us at any time.